NEW YORK - It was the evening of November 15, 2018, when 6 inches of snow stunned the city, and traffic was at a standstill for hours well into the night. It certainly could happen again, but it's unlikely this year.

What You Need To Know

  • Temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal in November

  • Precipitation has equal chances of being wet or dry this month

  • The average snowfall in November for NYC is just 0.3"

  • Most of the data suggests that this may be a snow-free November for NYC

The average snowfall in November for New York City is just 0.3 inches of snow. But at least three times since 1868, the city has been struck with storms that brought over a foot of snow. 

This year, any snow at all seems unlikely because we are expecting temperatures to continue trending warmer than normal. Temperatures were already running 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal as we closed out the first week of the month.

The Climate Prediction Center's monthly temperature outlook indicates that it's very likely to remain warmer than normal through the end of the month. It doesn't mean a cold snap couldn't bring a brief period of snow, but it does make snow less likely.

The other half of the puzzle is the precipitation forecast. In addition to the monthly temperature outlook, the Climate Prediction Center issues an outlook for the chance of a wetter or drier month.

The outlook for this November places the city at "equal chances" of either scenario. I'd be more confident about a snow-free November if the forecast was for a drier than normal month but this projection doesn't make snow more likely, so I'm still leaning toward a snow-free forecast.

To wrap up, we'll chat about the recent trends. If this November ends up warmer than normal, it'll be the first warmer-than-normal November since 2016.

The warmest November in recent history was actually in 2015 when there were four days with temperatures in the 70s.

As you may expect, most recent Novembers brought little or no snow to the city. So, it's not exactly like I'm going way out on a limb by predicting a snow-free November.

However, there are occasional surprises like we learned in 2018.

So, we'll see what the month has in store for us, but if you're hoping for an early glimpse at a white NYC, you may have to wait until later in the season.

I also took a glance at early December, and those first few weeks are also leaning warmer than normal. If you love snow, you might be waiting a while.