It was supposed to be the year of New York baseball.
The Mets entered the 2023 regular season with the highest payroll ever, two veteran aces leading the pitching staff and a lineup full of stars. The Yankees were poised to make a World Series push after extending slugger Aaron Judge and adding All-Star Carlos Rodon to their starting rotation.
But just under four months into the year, a Subway Series World Series appears to be a pipe dream.
When the crosstown rivals take the field this week in the Bronx, it won't be a battle between two contenders jockeying for postseason contention. Instead, it will be a skirmish among two struggling teams.
The Mets enter the Subway Series as one of Major League Baseball's most disappointing teams. After winning 101 games in 2022, they are 46-53 in 2023. They trail the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves by 18.5 games and will likely be sellers at next Tuesday's trade deadline.
Pitching was a strength for the Mets last year, but it's been arguably their biggest weakness this season. The Amazins have a team earned run average (ERA) of 4.41, up substantially from their 3.57 mark in 2022.
Aces Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, who both make $43.3 million per season, have been a shell of their former selves this year. Verlander has a 3.47 ERA and 1.16 walks plus hits per innings pitched, his highest marks since 2017, and 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings, his lowest tally in nearly a decade.
The rest of the pitching staff — besides All-Star Kodai Senga — has not been good either. Jose Quintana missed the first half of the season with an injury. Carlos Carrasco has a 5.82 ERA after allowing five runs in 2 1/3 innings Sunday night. Tylor Megill and David Peterson both earned demotions to Triple-A Syracuse this year, and Peterson is currently pitching out of the bullpen.
That bullpen — which lost star closer Edwin Diaz to injury before the season even started — also has been a weak spot, outside of fill-in closer David Robertson and high-leverage lefty Brooks Raley.
But pitching is not the only thing that has gone wrong for the Mets this season. Across the board, most of the team's hitters have regressed from a year ago.
First baseman Pete Alonso is among the league leaders in home runs and did make another All-Star team, but he is hitting .168 with 33 strikeouts since the start of June. Utility player Jeff McNeil's batting average in 2023 is 78 points lower than his league-leading 2022 mark. Outfielder Starling Marte's on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) is almost 175 points lower than last season.
The Mets have struggled in the field, too. Last year, the Mets finished the season with 13 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), which ranked 15th in the league. Through 99 games this year, the Mets are ranked 22nd in baseball with -8 DRS.
While the Mets have been undeniably underwhelming this season, things are more complicated for the Yankees.
Offensively, the Bronx Bombers revolve around Judge. But he has been out of the lineup since early June after injuring his right big toe, and since then, the Yankees are 18-22.
When Judge went down with an injury, the baton was passed to other sluggers in the lineup, and they are not producing.
First baseman Anthony Rizzo entered Sunday hitting hitting .131 in July and without a home run in 187 plate appearances since May 20. While he ended the drought and went 4-for-4 in a 5-2 win over the Kansas City Royals on Sunday, Rizzo's 45-game homerless drought was a big reason the Yankees have faltered offensively in Judge's absence.
Designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton and his $325 million contract are batting just .207 with 13 home runs and 33 RBI in 50 games. He has not been able to stay healthy, and when he has been on the field, he has not played up to his salary.
A year after batting .261 with a .357 on-base percentage (OBP), infielder D.J. LeMahieu is .233 with a .297 OBP. Third baseman Josh Donaldson, who was placed on the injured list on July 17, has a .142 average through 33 games. Catcher Jose Trevino hit .210 with a .570 OPS, the worst offensive numbers of his entire career, before being placed on the injured list on Friday.
The Yankees will also need better starting pitching from everyone other than Gerrit Cole.
Luis Severino has a 6.46 ERA, the highest walk rate in his career at 3.6 per nine innings, plus the most home runs allowed per nine innings at 2.3. Rodon missed the first half of the year, and made headlines after blowing a kiss to booing fans in Anaheim last week. Nestor Cortes struggled early and has been injured for the past month. And besides a perfect game in June, Domingo Germán has been inconsistent.
Other issues — like the lack of a quality starting left fielder, poor organizational depth and limited power from left-handers — have plagued the Yankees this season, but it all goes back to Judge. When he returns, anything is possible.
So the next two games could have postseason implications for the Yankees, who will need every win they can get as they enter the home stretch. For the Mets, however, the Subway Series will be a dirge — a sad song that will come amid a season that started with promise but fizzled into mediocrity.
