Former President Donald Trump’s conviction in New York last month is taking a toll on his support with independent voters, according to a new poll.


What You Need To Know

  • Twenty-one percent of independents surveyed by Politico and Ipsos said they believe the verdict is an important issue in determining their vote and that they are now less likely to support Trump

  • While Republican voters have largely continued to express support for Trump since the verdict and Democrats have remained critical, the poll sheds light on how independents — the all-important swing voters the candidates are vying for — view Trump today

  • The survey, however, also revealed a sizable portion of the electorate questions the prosecution

Twenty-one percent of independents surveyed by Politico and Ipsos said they believe the verdict is an important issue in determining their vote and that they are now less likely to support Trump. 

Among other independents who consider the conviction an important factor, 10% said it would not impact their vote while 5% said it would make them more likely to back Trump. Sixty-five percent of independents said the verdict is not important to how they will vote.

Trump was convicted last month of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to cover up hush money payments made to a porn star leading up to the 2016 presidential election. He is scheduled to be sentenced July 11.

While Republican voters have largely continued to express support for Trump since the verdict and Democrats have remained critical, the poll sheds light on how independents — the all-important swing voters the candidates are vying for — view Trump today.

Among all voters, a plurality of 38% say Trump’s conviction is unlikely to affect their support for the presumptive Republican nominee. But about twice as many respondents — 33% — said they are less likely to support Trump than those who said they are more likely to support him — 17%.

The survey, however, also revealed a sizable portion of the electorate questions the prosecution.

While 46% of respondents said they believe the verdict was “fair and impartial justice,” 32% disagreed and 19% said they did not know.

Meanwhile, a majority of voters said they either believe President Joe Biden was “directly involved” in the case (29%) or do not know if he was (25%). Seven in 10 respondents said they either think the Justice Department was directly involved (36%) or they do not know (34%). 

Trump and his allies have repeatedly alleged Biden and the Justice Department colluded with the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office in the case in an effort to hurt Trump politically. There is no evidence to support the claim, and both Biden and the DOJ have denied involvement.

Fifty-one percent of poll respondents said they do not believe the case was brought against Trump to help Biden gain a political advantage, but 43% said they think charges were filed to help the president’s reelection chances.

The poll of 1,027 adults age 18 and older was conducted from July 7-9. Its margin of error is 3.2 percentage points.

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