Georgia is the final stop in Spectrum News’ three-state tour of important battleground states after Pennsylvania and Arizona, where elections will likely impact the balance of power in Congress – and in turn, the lives of Americans across the country.
With Election Day three weeks away, early voting began Monday across the Peach State, and candidates for the state’s highest office – the governorship – debated the same night. At stake in the state is nearly every legislative position, with one Senate seat, the attorney general, the secretary of state and all 14 House seats open.
Already, early voting has broken records across the state. According to Georgia election official Gabriel Sterling, around 131,318 individuals cast ballots on the first day of early voting, an 85% increase from the last midterm and a record early midterm turnout.
Georgia was watched closely during the last election cycle, and ultimately became the tipping point that gave Democrats the majority in the Senate. The party is hoping to turn the remaining top statewide offices blue this midterm election.
The race for governor between Democrat Stacey Abrams and the incumbent, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, is a rematch from four years ago.
The 2018 race between Kemp and Abrams was marred by accusations of voter suppression lobbed from the Democrat at the Republican. According to the Associated Press, thousands of voters – most of whom were Black – were unable to cast their ballots after finding out their voter registrations were placed on hold. Abrams ultimately ended her campaign and acknowledged Kemp’s but refused to “concede” the race, saying at the time a “concession means to acknowledge an action is right, true or proper.”
Kemp and Abrams, along with Libertarian candidate Shane Hazel, debated Monday night in Atlanta, touching on the economy, abortion, guns and again on voter supression, with Abrams saying Kemp “has assiduously denied access to the right to vote.”
So far, Kemp remains ahead in polls with a near six-point lead, according to FiveThirtyEight.
There's also a race for a U.S. Senate seat. The leading contenders are Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock and former football great Herschel Walker, the Republican.
Warnock was first elected in January 2021 during a special election for the Senate seat held by Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed in 2020 by Gov. Kemp to fill the remaining time held by resigning Sen. Johnny Isakson, a fellow Republican. Georgia’s 2020 Senate races – in which both seats were up for grabs – garnered widespread national attention, as they determined the balance of power in what is now an evenly-split Senate.
Upon being sworn in after runoff elections held on Jan. 5, 2021, Warnock and Jon Ossoff became the first two Democrats elected to represent the state of Georgia in the Senate since Zell Miller in 2000.
Now, all eyes are on Warnock to see if he can fend off Walker in what is arguably, nationally, the more important contest, as control of the U.S. Senate hangs in the balance. The two debated last Friday.
“There wasn't any new information that was presented in that debate that I think is actually going to persuade undecided voters,” Andra Gillespie, an associate professor at Emory University, told Spectrum News. “And while I don't think that Raphael Warnock actually will have any type of eroded support as a result of his debate performance, I think he still has to make the case to those that small sliver of voters in the middle who are going to decide this race that Herschel Walker is really unfit for office.”
That race is polled as closer than the race for Governor. It’s made national news repeatedly, including over Walker’s position on abortion and reports he paid for an abortion of someone he was dating (more on that later). It’s a charge he denies.
“All I can predict at this point is that this race is going to be really, really close regardless of who wins,” Gillespie said.
And another wrinkle: There’s a third party candidate in the race for U.S. Senate, a Libertarian named Chase Oliver. If neither the Democrat nor the Republican clears 50% of the vote in November’s elections, there will be a runoff in early December.
Voters in Georgia who spoke with Spectrum News had mixed answers regarding which issues will be top-of-mind come ballot-casting time. Some indicated the economy is the number one concern, but believed Democrats weren’t as much responsible for problems as simple ups and downs. Others, meanwhile, placed the blame for high inflation and an economic downturn on President Joe Biden.
“The commercials on TV are getting ridiculous. I know who I'm voting for and I'm staying with that,” one Georgian told Spectrum News. “But it's just so much money being wasted on that right now.”
According to figures published by OpenSecrets, Georgia has seen more than $94 million in total itemized contributions during this year’s midterm elections, one of the highest figures in the nation.
The economy is reliably at the top of the list of concerns voiced by voters both in battleground states and nationwide. According to an early September poll from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist, a majority of Americans listed inflation and the economy as their number-one issues, though far more Republicans than Democrats answered as such. The second most important issue was abortion, followed by health care.
Abortion, a large national issue in the wake of the Supreme Court’s summer ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade, had Georgia voters split, with people expressing strong support for and against access to abortion.
“What are the biggest issues that I weigh? Well, I would say health care for sure, women's health care in particular, and education,” another Georgia voter said.
Abortion in Georgia is legal up until around five or six weeks of pregnancy, a law that was triggered by the Supreme Court’s decision in June. Often referred to as a “heartbeat bill,” the deadline often comes before many women know they are pregnant, and was signed into law by Gov. Kemp in 2019.
Accordingly, abortion has been a hot topic in both the races for governor and Senate. Kemp on Monday pledged he would not further restrict abortions should he win another term in office, while Abrams pledged to reverse the ban – a move that would be difficult should Republicans remain in control of the state legislature.
The topic is more personal in the Senate race, where Walker has faced repeated accusations that he paid for a former girlfriend’s abortion despite advocating for a near-total ban on the procedure nationwide during his campaign.
Over the weekend, Walker admitted to NBC News a $700 check given to the woman was indeed from him, but denied that the funds were used to secure an abortion.
Still, the controversy might not give Warnock the edge he would prefer. Polls conducted after the woman came forward with allegations about Walker several weeks ago showed the story cost Walker an average of three points; previously, the candidates’ odds of winning were tied at 47%, but Warnock now with 48% of likely voters, compared to 45% for Walker, according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis of several surveys.
Those numbers are also “narrow enough to be within the surveys’ margins of error,” the site noted.