For a decade, New York's 19th congressional district in the Hudson Valley has been a closely watched battleground seat. It lies outside large media markets, is home to rural areas, exurban communities and small cities. It has a mix of Democrats, Republicans and independents.
It's a perfect test kitchen for cooking up political messaging that could resonant with voters.
On Tuesday, voters in the 19th district as it's currently drawn voted one last time to fill the unexpired term of Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, who vacated the seat in May. They elected Democrat Pat Ryan, the Ulster County executive, over neighboring Republican Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro.
Delgado in an interview on Wednesday pointed to Ryan's support for abortion rights as key to the victory in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade earlier this summer.
"He put choice on the ballot very intentionally," Delgado said. "It's hard to imagine how that wouldn't be a factor if that was a very much a part of his effort, rightfully so."
Republicans, of course, see the outcome quite differently. They point to overlapping primaries for a newly drawn House seat in the area that could have helped boost Democratic turnout (Ryan will be running in a newly configured seat; Molinaro will also seek to win an adjacent district).
But historically, the party that controls the White House suffers setbacks in congressional midterms. The political climate - gas prices still above $4 a gallon, inflation and concerns over public safety - should spell trouble for Democrats. But Delgado expects abortion rights and passion stoked by the court ruling will drive Democratic voters to the polls this November.
Still, he acknowledges there are limits to what conclusions can be drawn from one special election at the end of the summer.
"But what I do know, though, is that it is going to be a central issue and it should be," Delgado said of abortion rights. "We should be talking about a fundamental right that was rolled back."
New York, home to multiple tossup races this fall, is also expected to play a major role in determining who controls the House of Representatives, even if it remains a deeply Democratic state.
"As we see the country now struggling with dark forces seeking to pull us backwards through a language of hate and divisiveness, it is incumbent now more than ever before for New York to lean forward with a language of truth and justice," Delgado said.
Molinaro, however, points to the ongoing troubles facing voters, saying they are exhausted by inflation as well as rhetoric he charges has divided voters.
"We are going to continue to confront skyrocketing costs, we're going to have to deal with crime on the rise," he said. "But the underlying sentiment and feeling for folks throughout this district is that many of them feel like they don't belong."
Molinaro expects the newly drawn 19th district, which includes parts of the Southern Tier, Catskills and Hudson Valley, will also serve as a bellwether for the rest of the state and the country.
"This district very much reflects that upstate feel and can be a very good indicator for how the election is going to turn in November," he said.
Molinaro also expects rhetoric like Gov. Kathy Hochul's claim this week Republicans like himself and gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin do not reflect New York values and should leave will resonant negatively with a broader set of voters.
"It is increasingly demoralizing to families to hear a government that basically says unless you agree with us, you don't belong here," he said.