Groundhog Day is arguably the biggest weather holiday of the year. On Feb. 2 each year, Punxsutawney Phil emerges from his burrow at Gobbler’s Knob in Pennsylvania. Thousands of people gather around, curious to know if Phil sees his shadow.

As the legend has it, when Phil sees his shadow, it means there are six more weeks of winter ahead of us. No shadow indicates an early spring.

Phil has forecast the weather on Groundhog Day for more than 120 years. But as it turns out, he isn’t that good at his job.

Watch the video above to see how many times he’s gotten the forecast wrong and find out how we came to rely on Phil in the first place.