SANTA ANA, Calif. — A handful of Southern California congressional races on Tuesday's ballot could determine which political party holds power in the House next year, with two key races in Orange County, one in Los Angeles County and another in Riverside County, experts say.

UC Irvine political science professor Lou DeSipio told City News Service he hadn't anticipated such a close race between Democrat Derek Tran and incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel of Huntington Beach.

"I thought it was a slam dunk for Steel, but (Tran's) raised a lot of money, got his name out there and built some support," DeSipio said. "My gut is the incumbent usually hangs on to those seats, but it could go either way. Democrats are clearly making an investment in that district."

In the 47th congressional district, Republican businessman Scott Baugh is making another run for the seat after falling just short of defeating Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, two years ago. Baugh is facing off with state Sen. Dave Min, D-Irvine.

DeSipio said Democrats were also investing heavily in Min's campaign.

"They recognize if they want to win the House, they have to pick up a couple of seats and a couple in New York. Tran is one of a handful they can pick up," DeSipio said.

The Tran-Steel contest has featured heated exchanges with Steel, who is Korean, at one point saying she was "more Vietnamese" than Tran, an Army veteran who says his "parents fled the Communist regime in Vietnam."

"She tried to question Tran's Vietnamese-ness, and he effectively pushed back on that," DeSipio said.

Vietnamese voters are a key GOP bloc in the district, and Steel in the past has allied herself politically with former Orange County Supervisor Andrew Do, who resigned as he pleaded guilty to bribery last week.

DeSipio said it is possible that the "second generation (of Vietnamese in the district) are more open than their parents, and they might be open to a Democrat who is Vietnamese. He's proven to be a serious candidate. He does know how to raise money and bring in national support. ... He hadn't raised much money in the primary, but he was able to generate money at the end of the primary."

Orange County Democratic Party Chairwoman Ada Briceno said she "absolutely" believes Do may prove a drag on Steel. Briceno added that she has "talked to many Republicans in that district crossing over for Tran. Not only crossing over and voting for him, but putting their money where their mouth is and hosting events and helping us lead the charge against Steel."

Orange County GOP Chairman Fred Whitaker said "all four congressional seats are critical for us. There's only a four-seat House majority right now so our seats are critical to the majority."

Whitaker said the party was "very confident" in Steel's campaign.

"The great thing is she's a very hard campaigner and never leaves anything to chance," Whitaker said. "We're very optimistic."

Cal State Fullerton political science professor Matt Jarvis said he believes Republicans will hang on to a majority in the House.

"I think Republicans are likely to hold on to a narrow majority, maybe 222-223, because I think there's going to be a heck of a lot more ticket splitting than we've seen in recent years," Jarvis told City News Service. "I think there's going to be a lot of people who can't vote for (Donald) Trump, but who are very unhappy with inflation, and I think the only way they can send that message is to put Republicans in Congress."

The "sexy" races in California include Districts 45 and 43, Jarvis said.

Jarvis predicted that Min's drunk driving conviction could weaken his chances of defeating Baugh.

"The drunk driving thing really seems to have had legs," Jarvis said. "I hear it a lot. It's penetrated."

Jarvis said he sees more campaign signs in Steel's district.

"I'm in Placentia, and I see a lot of Steel signs -- more than Tran," he said. "And she has a cash advantage. I see a ton of Steel ads on streaming radio."

It is a mystery how the Vietnamese vote will break down in the district, he said. For "half a century," Vietnamese residents have voted Republican as the "anti-communist" party, he said.

But with a Vietnamese Democrat on the ballot, that could change, he said.

The race between Democrat Will Rollins and Rep. Ken Calvert will be "interesting" because it's a showdown between the more conservative part of the district in the Inland Empire and the more liberal Palm Springs, he said.

"That will be really interesting to see if it's possible to shift the center of gravity in that district," Jarvis said.

Ironically, Californians may have to look to similar congressional districts on the east coast for a clue as to the outcome since the counting in California will take longer, Jarvis said.

"We'll be watching other districts in other states to give us a guess who's in control of Congress," he said.

Republican congressional candidates would be likely cruising to victory if Trump were not on the ballot, Jarvis said.

"Trump is box office poison in urban Orange County," he said. "It's the reason why Democrats won the entire county in 2018. If you get rid of him, the county is still a little leaning red."