It could all come down to the Keystone State — Pennsylvania — on election night, a fact that both the Harris and Trump campaigns are hyper-aware of.

The candidates have made multiple stops to the commonwealth in recent weeks to shore up support before the election, but it’s Northampton County voters they may want to convince.

Northampton County, located in the Northeastern part of the state, is one of just two bellwether counties in all of Pennsylvania. It elected Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020. 

In 2020, it went for Biden by less than a percentage point – making every vote in this swing district an important one.

“Since 1912, Northampton County has voted for the presidential winner in every election except 1968, 2000 and 2004. So that's a pretty good record,” said John Kincaid, Director of the Meyner Center for the Study of State and Local Government at Lafayette College in Easton, Penn., the county seat. 

In all three of those elections, Northampton voted for a Democrat, and the country went Republican. The county is anchored by two mid-sized cities of Easton and Bethlehem that lean more Democratic, with surrounding rural areas tending to vote more Republican. Kincaid said the county tends to only swing toward a Republican when the country does. 

“The registration level between Democrats and Republicans is pretty close to each other,” explained Kincaid. “The Democrats have an advantage in registration, but it's not a huge advantage. So [it’s] kind of a mix of people in Northampton County. It's not at all uniform, and it's much more like the diversity of the country as a whole.”

Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign is hoping it can build upon the groundwork Biden laid here with voters in 2020. Her campaign has a standalone office in a small shopping center in Easton, once the home of a furniture store. Inside the office Thursday, more than half a dozen volunteers and paid staff were taking phone calls, stuffing campaign literature into envelopes and preparing lawn signs.

“It's just sort of everything's taken off, and the momentum has grown week by week. People are looking for signs, which is why we're basically out of signs all the time,” noted Northampton County Democratic Party Chair Matthew Munsey, describing the excitement for Harris’ candidacy. 

Even with that excitement, Munsey said Democrats realize this is a tough race for Harris. A Morning Consult/Muhlenberg College poll out Thursday put former President Donald Trump and Harris in a dead heat at 48% each. Munsey says in the days leading up to the election, the Democratic strategy is to reach as many voters as possible through door knocking.

“The focus is having direct conversations with voters, listening to them, hearing their concerns and responding,” he said. 

Gov. Tim Walz stopped in Bethlehem just last week for a rally to try to reach voters in this swing district, showing the level of focus the campaign is putting on this small county in the Keystone State.

Spectrum News reached out to the Northampton County Republican Committee multiple times for an interview, but the committee declined. When asked what the campaign’s ground game looked like in Northampton County, a Trump spokesperson said they have both paid staff and volunteers working everyday through phone banking and door knocking to reach voters, but provided very little information otherwise. 

The county was once home to Bethlehem Steel, which closed for good in 2003. Kincaid says people in the county still “remember the loss of the jobs associated with the decline of U.S. steel.” The economy in Northampton has shifted as Kincaid described from a manufacturing economy to a more small business economy. 

“The economy, I think, will loom large in this county because we do have, very much of a mix of income groups. And we have a lot of low-income people,” said Kincaid. “They're sort of microcosms of the country as a whole.”

For some voters we spoke with at the local ShopRite in Bethlehem, the economy was a top-of-mind issue.

“My biggest issue is the border, honestly. The border and the economy. Yeah. The price of food is just skyrocketing. crime is skyrocketing. Those are my two main concerns,” said Rich Domalesky, a Republican from Easton who has voted for Trump in the past, and plans to vote for him in November.

“We're both retired. My husband and I, we're comfortable, but we're even feeling the pinch. These last four years have been horrible,” said Carol Grube, pointing to her husband, Tom. The pair live in Easton, and while Tom didn’t talk about politics, Carol said she plans to vote for Trump in November, and that she supported him in the past two elections as well.

Maureen Brown said it’s reproductive rights driving her to the ballot box this November.

“I have two young daughters, and with how the Supreme Court and currently…Trump’ Republican Party, I'm really concerned with their ability to choose their rights with their own bodies," said Brown, who plans to support Harris. 

“I just want to make sure that we have someone in Congress and in the presidency that can protect the women and the young girls of our future.”  

Kermit Burley, a retired college professor who is a registered Republican, said he is undecided as to how he will vote this November. He’s supported Trump in 2016 and 2020, but has also cast his ballot for Democratic candidates.

“I always try to, you know, get the best candidate for the country. And it's been real tough to get to that right now,” explained Burley. “I'm trying to figure out the long-term effects of it and who could do the best. It's tough. I just wish the rhetoric could go down and the name-calling would stop, you know. Just kind of get to the issues.”

Burley said his top two issues he’s weighing remain inflation and the border. When asked what Harris could do to potentially earn his vote, Burley said he wants “more specifics.”

“I think that would be the same for our local people – you know…talk specifics about what you'll do for us here, that's it,” he said.

As to Northampton’s role as a bellwether, Brown said there is a sense of responsibility felt by voters here.

“I do feel like people are aware of that and how important it is to make sure that we vote here in Northampton County and, especially with the younger population and, to just get their vote in,” she said as she headed to her car with her groceries.

And while it may be a privilege to be a county that helps determine the election, it can also be a burden.

“We're getting inundated, we're getting an awful lot of our mailers and people knocking on doors, the whole thing,” said Burley. 

“It's a little bit unfortunate, a little bit lucky, but you know, here we're looking at being a swing county and a swing state makes it a little rough.”