Donald Trump is on the cusp of formally securing the Republican nomination for president for the third election in a row. 

And in New York’s competitive congressional districts, which could determine control of the U.S. House in November, many of the Republican candidates are already lining up behind him - a move that one analyst argues could offer both benefits and potential problems. 

First out the gate was Suffolk County Rep. Nick LaLota, who represents arguably the most GOP-friendly of New York’s swing seats. In the week between the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, LaLota endorsed the former president, writing, “Trump’s policies made our nation stronger and had us on track to prosperity.”

Others have followed suit.

What You Need To Know

  • In New York’s competitive congressional districts, which could determine control of the U.S. House in November, many of the Republican candidates are already lining up behind former President Donald Trump

  • Rep. Nick LaLota was the first to formally endorse Trump, announcing his support in January

  • Political analyst Lawrence Levy with Hofstra University said each of the candidates is engaging in a balancing act, weighing how endorsing Trump - or steering clear of him - would affect their own election chances
  • Invoking Gov. Kathy Hochul's 2022 win in New York, Levy notes Democrats have their own potential difficulties with President Joe Biden’s polling struggling

Alison Esposito, who is challenging Democratic incumbent Rep. Pat Ryan in the Hudson Valley, tweeted a photo embracing a flag in the style of Trump. She urged Republicans to “unite behind the one candidate who can and will defeat Joe Biden in November.”

Syracuse-area Rep. Brandon Williams posted that he believes Trump will be the nominee and said, “I have always said our nominee will have my full support to turn this country around.”

In New York’s 4th Congressional District on Long Island, which Joe Biden won by nearly 15 points in 2020, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito announced his Trump endorsement last month, telling a crowd, “If you think back to a time when President Trump was the president, we had a safer America, a more affordable America. We had an America you could be proud of.”

Political analyst Lawrence Levy, who is the dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, said each of these candidates is engaging in a balancing act, weighing how endorsing Trump - or steering clear of him - would affect their own candidacies. 

“They're going to have to do the math really, really carefully to see if losing suburban women - who are the swing voters within the swing voting bloc - and their lack of support for Donald Trump is worth the votes that they might pick up from the MAGA movement,” Levy said. 

So far, two of the swing district Republicans are keeping their powder dry. 

A spokesman for Rep. Marc Molinaro, in a statement, said, “Marc is focused on fighting to solve the issues Upstate New Yorkers are struggling with. Once the voters speak, he’ll support the Republican nominee.”

Rep. Mike Lawler, meanwhile, said, “My focus is on the job that I have been elected to do. And obviously, ultimately, the voters will decide who the nominees are and who the next president is.”

Democrats in some of these contests are already attacking the Republicans for their Trump endorsements.  

For instance, John Avlon, who is trying to take on LaLota in Suffolk County, described the congressman as a “Trump flunky.”

Meanwhile, Laura Gillen, who is running to unseat D’Esposito, recently held a press conference where she and other participants highlighted Trump’s appointment of Supreme Court justices who overturned the constitutional right to an abortion.

Levy notes Democrats have their own potential difficulties with Biden’s polling struggling as well. He invoked Gov. Kathy Hochul’s win in 2022 - a year when Republicans made inroads in congressional contests across New York.

“If [Biden’s] performance falls off dramatically from 2020, then you have a situation with Kathy Hochul’s campaign - she also carried New York, but only by five or six points, which meant she didn't have the so-called coattails,” he said. “There were candidates who, with a stronger performance at the top of the ticket, might in fact have won.”