Dual reports were released Tuesday taking a look at who is leaving New York state, and how the COVID-19 pandemic played a role.

New York State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli released a study looking at outmigration and which tax filers are fleeing the state. Meanwhile, the Fiscal Policy Institute released a report looking at whether high earners are leaving as a result of New York’s most recent tax hikes, and if the trend of high earners fleeing New York in the early days of the pandemic has continued.

The Fiscal Policy Institute says their study called “Who is leaving New York” which uses Census, IRS and New York state tax data dispels what they call a myth: If you raise taxes on your highest earners you will lose them as sources of tax revenue through migration to other states. At the same time, they say it also suggests outmigration resulting from the pandemic may have been temporary.

“Our key findings largely relate to what we think of as the myth of millionaire tax migration,” said Executive Director Nathan Gusdorf.

Gusdorf says multiple factors contributed to the outmigration of high earners from New York State during the pandemic, including many who worked from home elsewhere.

That said, the study found in 2022 that outmigration among high-earning New Yorkers, that’s those earning more than $815,000 per year, returned to pre-pandemic levels despite tax hikes in 2017 and 2021.

“There was no significant behavioral response to the tax increase,” Gusdorf said. “Meaning there is no significant desire to move out of the state in response to higher taxes.”

With the highest earners largely staying put, he says it's middle and working-class individuals who are leaving largely because of the cost of living, including high housing costs.

He says limiting tax hikes on the wealthy limits the ability to solve these problems.

“That can be a very serious limitation on the state’s ability to address anticipated budget deficits and to invest in new social programs that would make life better and more affordable for upper and middle-income New Yorkers,” he said.

Center-right think tank Empire Center criticized the findings, with research director Ken Girardin saying that the study relies heavily on the American Community Survey, which is gathered by the Census Bureau.

“There’s no good reason to be rushing out with microscopic sample sizes of self-reported data unless you’re just trying to cudgel the governor into agreeing with your policy prescription,” he said.

Fiscal Policy Institute in response points to the use of both IRS and Census data, along with the ACS numbers.

The report comes as DiNapoli released data Tuesday revealing that more individuals left New York in both 2020 and 2021 than moved in, compared to pre-pandemic years.

With the loss of these income tax filers, the majority of whom the report says were single filers, the report urges lawmakers to closely monitor migration trends to “preserve the state’s largest revenue source” and ensure essential services.

Girardin says that means not taking the tax revenue of the state’s highest earners for granted. 

“This would not be a good time to try to draw more from that well because the water in that well has a tendency to dry up very quickly when we have an economic recession or an economic downturn,” he said. 

Fiscal leaders say Gov. Kathy Hochul has been clear in saying she is not looking to increase taxes as the state works to combat a $4.3 million budget deficit next year.