Candidates are flocking to the Republican gubernatorial field, but in a state like New York, what are the chances a Republican could win a statewide office?

New York has more than six million registered Democrats, a little less than three million registered Republicans and about the same amount of unaffiliated active voters.

Now you might say, well wait a second, Governor George Pataki, a Republican, beat out Governor Mario Cuomo in his fourth term bid.

But as Larry Levy, executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hoftstra University, points out, the landscape now in 2021 is much different than it was in 1994.         

“This is a very different time, it's a very different state,” Levy explained. “I use the expression, ‘this is not your mother and father's suburbs anymore’ to capture the dynamic demographic change that literally has remade the face and faces of suburbia.”

The Republican gubernatorial field is starting to stack up. Congressman Lee Zeldin, Rob Astorino, Lewis County Sheriff Mike Carpinelli and now Andrew Giuliani… the New York Republican Party is not shying away from its ties to former President Donald Trump.

Democratic Party Chairman Jay Jacobs says these ties might help a candidate win a Republican primary, but not a statewide election.

“New York state went over 60% for Joe Biden,” Jacobs explained. “New York state voters are smart. They see what this is about and they're not buying the Trump routine. So somebody who's got himself tied to Donald Trump, I think is a non-starter right away.”

But will the eventual Republican nominee be challenging Governor Andrew Cuomo in his re-election bid?

Although Cuomo has said he plans to run again, there is still a lot unknown with three pending investigations into him and his administration.

Attorney General Letitia James is investigating the numerous sexual harassment allegations against Cuomo, the U.S. Department of Justice is looking into whether the Cuomo administration intentionally withheld the number of COVID related nursing home deaths and the Assembly has launched an impeachment investigation into all of these scandals and more.

Jacobs says regardless, a primary is almost certain just looking at the last two gubernatorial elections.

“There’s a lot brewing right now, we've got to see how that all settles out and what the governor decides,” Jacobs explained. “But no matter which way we go, we're going to field a very strong candidate. It will be a candidate that appeals to the center, the progressive center of our party.”

Levy agrees that any primary challenger will most likely wait to announce their bid until after the investigations wrap up.  

“Nobody is going to jump in the race. Nobody who has a real chance of winning I should add, is going to jump into a race against Andrew Cuomo on the Democratic side, until his so-called issues are determined,” Levy said. “And it's the sexual harassment stuff, it's the nursing home stuff, you name it. You don't have to like them, you don't have to respect them, but right now he is still the front-runner.”

If Cuomo were to, for whatever reason, drop out of the race, Levy predicts that the Democratic primary field would be packed in 2022.