The Associated Press on Tuesday night called its last outstanding House race of the 2024 election cycle, shedding light on exactly what size majority Republicans in the lower chamber will be working with in the next Congress. 

What You Need To Know

  • The Associated Press on Tuesday night called its last outstanding House race of the 2024 election cycle, shedding light on exactly what size majority Republicans in the lower chamber will be working with in the next Congress
  • Tuesday’s call by the AP made it official that Republicans won 220 seats in the lower chamber this election cycle to Democrats’ 215 – two fewer seats than the House GOP started with after the 2022 midterms 
  • House Republicans are already set to start the new session down one seat due to former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz's resignation, and two more of Trump’s picks for jobs in his administration are also expected to hand over their House seats in January 
  • That means for approximately two months, a single Republican lawmaker has the potential to determine the fate of a bill in the House if all members are present and Democrats are voting in unison

It has been known for weeks that the GOP would hang onto their edge in the House as part of a trifecta in Washington next year. The GOP will control the White House and both chambers of Congress.

But the margin of a party’s majority is significant as it determines how many votes the party can lose on any given bill – a threshold that may help shape GOP priorities next year and dictate how much energy leadership will have to put into working across the aisle on must-pass legislation like funding the government.  

Tuesday’s call by the AP made it official that Republicans won 220 seats in the lower chamber this election cycle to Democrats’ 215 – two fewer seats than the House GOP started with after the 2022 midterms, which was already the fifth smallest edge in U.S. history, according to Pew Research Center. That session of Congress (the current one) saw a speaker ousted and brutal fights over raising the debt ceiling and averting government shutdowns.  

But next year, the math is less straightforward. So exactly what margin will the GOP be working with?

House Republicans are already set to start the new session down one seat from the 220 they won this November after former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, President-elect Donald Trump’s initial pick for attorney general, announced his resignation from Congress. Gaetz has since dropped out of contention for the top Justice Department spot amid controversy but said he will not return to the House seat he was reelected to next year. 

Two more of Trump’s picks for jobs in his administration, Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York and Mike Waltz of Florida, are also expected to hand over their House seats to serve as the ambassador to the United Nations and White House national security adviser respectively once the president-elect’s second term starts in January. 

That will leave the House GOP with just a 217-215 edge – a one-seat majority – until special elections are carried out to fill those lawmakers’ seats. 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has already scheduled such elections to replace Waltz and Gaetz in the two Sunshine State seats for April 1, 2025. A date has not been set for Stefanik’s seat. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul will have 10 days to announce one after Stefanik officially leaves. 

According to House rules, in the case of a tie vote, the action in question “shall be lost,” meaning if one Republican defects from the party and votes with a unified Democratic coalition, creating a 216-216 result, the legislation would go down. 

That means for approximately two months – depending on when the New York election is held and Stefanik is replaced – a single Republican lawmaker has the potential to determine the fate of a bill in the House if all members are present and Democrats are voting in unison.