On Thursday night, President Joe Biden will leave the White House grounds to make the trip to the other end of Pennsylvania Ave. to deliver the annual State of the Union address – with plenty on his plate, and even more at stake.
The president -- in the thick of a reelection campaign that looks increasingly likely to be a rematch between him and former President Donald Trump -- is attempting to broker a peace deal in Gaza, while convincing a thus far seemingly unmoved GOP House Speaker to put billions in aid to Ukraine up for a vote, fending off persistent questions about age and struggling to persuade the American public the economy is thriving and he deserves credit.
In short, as Todd Belt, Professor and Director of Political Management at George Washington, puts it, Thursday night for the president is “pretty high-stakes.”
“I wouldn't call it make-or-break, but I would put the emphasis on 'break' more than 'make,'” Belt said, adding: “There's going to be a ton of scrutiny on the president.”
Biden – as he did before last year’s speech, according to Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre – spent the weekend huddled with top advisors tucked away at Camp David, the historic presidential retreat in Maryland, preparing for Thursday’s address.
“This is something that he is personally involved in,” Jean-Pierre said of the president’s role in the preparation at Wednesday’s White House press briefing. “This is something that comes straight from having conversations with the American people.”
The president, she added, will continue to “fine-tune” the speech Wednesday and Thursday before he hits TVs in prime time. Biden had no public events on Wednesday.
Belt noted State of the Union addresses during election years in which the president is seeking another four years in the White House take on a different tone.
While there may be no campaign banners or walk-up songs and the reason for the speech may stem from a constitutional requirement for the president to from “time to time give to the Congress information of the State of the Union,” Belt said such addresses offer incumbent president’s the chance to “take a victory lap” and make a direct appeal to voters.
“The State of the Union during an election year is a chance for the President to remind the public of the successes from the prior three years,” he said. “But it's also a way for the president to say, 'the job isn't done, you need to send me back to complete the job.'”
And the White House has made clear Biden is preparing to do just that.
Jean-Pierre on Wednesday laid out the key goals Biden plans to focus on Thursday night: lowering costs for Americans and “giving people more breathing room;” preserving democracy; protecting reproductive health; and progress on the “unity agenda” he laid out in his first State of the Union, such as addressing cancer, delivering for veterans and beating the opioid epidemic.
“Fundamentally, the president will outline an agenda that is about continuing to build on the progress that we’ve made over the last three years,” she said.
Here are some key topics expected to play center roles in Biden’s Thursday address:
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Since the Supreme Court overturned of Roe v. Wade in June 2022, Democrats have sought to put the issue of abortion front and center. As Belt notes, the issue has proven to be electorally fruitful for Democrats, who have credited the topic for helping blue candidates secure victories since the high court’s decision.
“Democrats know that this is their kryptonite for Republicans,” Belt said. ”This is what they can use against Republicans that has helped them in the last two elections in 2022, as well as in the off-years in 2023.”
Biden – whose first campaign rally alongside Vice President Kamala Harris of the election year centered on “Restoring Roe” – is making clear he will continue to a spotlight on the issue by inviting Kate Cox as a guest to Thursday’s address. Cox's story of having to leave her home state of Texas to get an abortion when her health was in danger due to the state’s restrictive abortion laws garnered national attention.
Recently, Democrats received fresh material to work with on the topic when the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that frozen embryos could be considered children, leading experts to warn of potential major implications for in vitro fertilization.
After Republicans in Congress killed a sweeping border policy deal that a bipartisan group of senators and the White House spent weeks negotiating, Biden has been hounding lawmakers to revisit the legislation.
The GOP had originally requested border changes be included in a package to provide Biden’s request for aid to Ukraine, Israel, allies in the Indo-Pacific and more. The president has blamed his predecessor former President Donald Trump – who vocally came out against the deal – for its downfall.
And just last week, as Jean-Pierre noted on a call with reporters on Wednesday – the president made a closely watched visit to the border in Brownsville, Texas, where he highlighted what was at stake without action from Congress.
“He's tried to take that issue away from Republicans and to some degree, there's been some success in that,” Belt said. “We'll see more of that tomorrow.”
“It's a lie, everybody knows it's a lie,” Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, told Spectrum News on Wednesday when asked about his response to the likelihood the president will criticize Republicans for killing the Senate border deal in his address Thursday.
“Anybody with a brain who looks at the Senate bill knows it was a purposeful effort to give them an excuse for why they could blame Republicans when it is they who have left the borders wide open,” he continued.
Despite consumer sentiment rising and numerous signs people are feeling better about the economy, polls show Biden has struggled to convince the American public he and his policies deserve the credit.
A poll conducted in January by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research put his economic approval rating at just 35%, despite his administration having now embarked on four “Investing in America” tours in which top officials hit the road to sell his economic agenda.
“Biden has tried to message on jobs … and other aspects of the economy, but inflation remains the big sticking one,” Belt said. “And it's difficult for Democrats, because when you ask people which party is better in handling inflation, they usually say Republicans. So this is not a good issue for him.”
To that end, Biden will outline an ambitious budget proposal to reduce the federal deficit $3 trillion over 10 years, the White House said Thursday, fueled in large part by raising taxes on wealthy corporations and billionaires. Biden's proposal would call for billionaires to pay a minimum of 25% on their income, raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, and bar corporations from being able to deduct employee pay if they pay over $1 million to any employee.
He will also outline proposals to cut taxes for the middle class and use revenues from his proposals to pay for expansions of programs that aid lower-income families, like the Child Tax Credit and the Earned Income Tax Credit. Biden is also set to outline a plan to implement higher Medicare taxes on Americans making more than $400,000 annually to help the program remain financially solvent.
Lael Brainard, director of the White House National Economic Council, said that Biden will contrast his proposals to Republicans' plans of extending the 2017 Trump-era tax cuts while slashing corporate tax rates.
In a briefing with reporters on Tuesday, White House domestic policy adviser Neera Tanden said Biden will seek to highlight his work to lower costs for American families while making sure they know the administration is aware some are feeling a “middle-class squeeze.”
“Americans want more breathing room,” Tanden said said, “and as the president has been focused on throughout his term, we will see the State of the Union as an opportunity to drive a robust policy agenda to address a range of costs.”
Tanden noted Biden will highlight his work to lower health care costs, such as securing the ability for Medicare to negotiate drug prices and capping insulin at $35 a month for seniors and other Medicare enrollees.
“The president will build on that agenda in the State of the Union with more action to take on big Pharma to reduce drug costs for more and more Americans,” Tanden said.
She also said Biden will address housing. She noted the administration recognizes “that housing is a real challenge in the country both in terms of affording a first home or being able to pay rent.”
“The president will speak to these issues and he has specific proposals that he will speak to in terms of housing affordability and ensuring we are addressing rent,” she said.
National Economic Council on Lowering Costs Deputy Director Jon Donenberg and Rohit Chopra, Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau of the United States on Junk Fees, also noted Biden will call out companies over his belief that some are continuing to keep prices high despite declining costs as well as his self-proclaimed war on hidden or surprise fees at the end of purchases.
“Unfortunately it is going to be a lot of a spin on how Bidenomics has actually been a success,” Rep. Cory Mills, R-Fla., told Spectrum News on Wednesday when asked what he expects to hear from the president on Thursday.
“You have people who can’t afford the American dream anymore, to own their own homes,” he added.
Thursday’s high-profile address also comes as Biden is navigating two wars overseas as his request to Congress for additional foreign aid still hangs in the balance.
Biden has implored House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. to put the Senate-passed $95B package providing aid to Ukraine amid Russia’s invasion, Israel as it battles Hamas, the Indo-Pacific as China grows its influence in the region and more up for a vote – thus far to no avail.
Jean-Pierre on Wednesday confirmed that Biden invited Ukraine’s first lady as well as the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died last month in a Russian prison, to Thursday’s address. Both are not able to make it, she said.
Meanwhile, when it comes to the war in Gaza, Belt said, Biden may have to walk a finer line.
“This is something where he has to walk a delicate dance,” he said.
“There's a big faction of the party that is not happy with support for Israel, given what's going on in Gaza,” Belt added. “So that's going to have to be something he's going to have to diplomatically address.”
Biden has faced criticism from some in his party over his support for Israel amid the war in Gaza as the Palestinian death toll has risen and the humanitarian crisis has worsened.
But amid that push from his party's left flank, Biden will announce Thursday that he's ordering the U.S. military to establish a temporary port on Gaza's coast to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid amid the war between Israel and Hamas, according to senior administration officials.
The operation, which will allow an increased flow of food, medicine and other necessary items into the beleaguered enclave, will not require U.S. troops on the ground.
"We’re not planning for this to be an operation that would require U.S. boots on the ground," an official said Thursday ahead of Biden's speech.
An official said that the military has "unique capabilities" to construct the facility from "just offshore."
While not a policy issue per se, Belt notes the 81-year-old president’s age could be a focus Thursday night.
Biden has faced mounting questions on the topic that were only heightened when a special counsel report recommending against charging Biden for his handling of classified information referred to him as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”
“People are waiting for him to have that ‘oops’ moment in terms of his memory, or his physical, stamina, posture what have you,” Belt said. “And so there's gonna be a lot of people waiting to play the gotcha game with him if he does something wrong.”
Belt, however, also noted Thursday is an opportunity for Biden to “reenergize those voters who have become a little bit disaffected.”