When voters in New Hampshire take to the polls on Tuesday for the nation’s first 2024 primary election, there is one prominent name they will not see on their ballots: Joe Biden.
For months – amid debates, notable figures ending their campaigns and the Iowa caucuses – much of the election attention has been focused on the Republican side of the ballot. But Tuesday's contest will mark the first time the nation sees election results among 2024 Democratic candidates.
But how the incumbent president fares without his name on the ballot could be significant.
Here's what you need to know about Biden's ballot absence on Tuesday:
Biden’s 2024 reelection campaign made the decision not to file for the ballot in New Hampshire after the state announced a primary date that defied the Democratic National Committee’s new nominating contest order.
The DNC voted to shake up its primary lineup last year, punting the Granite State from its long-held first-in-the-nation spot to put South Carolina first instead, a move that Democrats said is aimed at empowering Black and other minority voters.
"The Democrats decided to move their first primary to South Carolina because it more closely reflects who the Democratic Party is, and who are the most active members of the Democratic Party,” Todd Belt, Professor and Director of Political Management at George Washington University, told Spectrum News. “It's not a bunch of moderate to conservative white people up in New Hampshire. It's more like the electorate that is in South Carolina."
South Carolina is also the state considered to have turned the tide in a positive direction for Biden in 2020 after disappointing results in Iowa and New Hampshire.
But officials in New Hampshire bucked the DNC’s new plan, pointing to state law requiring it to hold the nation’s first opening primary contest.
As such, Biden's campaign did not submit his name for the ballot. But his two challengers, Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., and author Marianne Williamson, will be on the ballot on Tuesday.
Biden, however, could still win through write-in votes.
Despite lingering disappointment and, in some cases anger, from local Democrats at the DNC’s move, volunteers in the state have been organizing for weeks to educate voters about the situation and still pull out a victory for the president.
“Even though the DNC made a terrible decision, we see strong energy for a write-in Joe Biden campaign, because Joe Biden has done what independent voters in New Hampshire have asked, which is work across the aisle to deliver important bipartisan results to the people of our country,” Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H. said in an interview with NBC’s "Meet the Press" on Sunday.
Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., who was on the ground in the Granite State over the weekend to spread the word about the write-in effort -- despite representing a district on the other side of the country -- emphasized that there is a lot at stake on Tuesday.
“It's critical that we unify around President Biden," Khanna said in an interview with Spectrum News from New Hampshire on Sunday. "We know he's gonna be facing Donald Trump, the stakes are so high, and his winning in New Hampshire is going to matter to set the tone for the campaign."
A poll from Emerson College Polling/WHDH conducted between Jan. 18-20 found 61% of Democratic primary voters plan to write-in Biden’s name on Tuesday. Phillips won 16% of Democratic support in the poll while Williamson brought in 5%.
Belt said that while it is “hard to put a number on it,” anything less than 80% support would be “really detrimental” for the incumbent president’s campaign.
The DNC will not be awarding delegates to New Hampshire’s winner due to the state’s decision to defy its new primary lineup, leaving Tuesday’s results on the Democratic side essentially bearing only symbolic meaning.