With the no votes stacking up against him, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., is doubling down, telling reporters that he will take this fight to be Speaker of the House to the chamber floor.

What You Need To Know

  • With the no votes stacking up against him, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., is doubling down, telling reporters that he will take this fight to be Speaker of the House to the chamber floor

  • Five of his Republican colleagues have already spoken out against McCarthy’s candidacy, including Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., Rep. Bob Good, R-Va., Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., and Rep. Matt Rosendale, R-Mont. 

  • The House may be gearing up for the first multi-ballot speaker election in 100 years, since Fredrick Huntington Gillet became speaker in 1923 after 9 rounds of votes

  • McCarthy, though publicly confident when asked by reporters about getting the votes he needs, is also cognizant of what he has to lose

“Oh yeah, I’ll take the speaker’s fight to the floor,” he said Tuesday, adding there is no chance he will drop out of the race and is willing to take it to as many ballots as necessary.

"We’ll have 218," McCarthy said, referring to the number of votes needed for him to win the top position. "At the end of the day, we’ll get there."

But the reality for McCarthy is he may need to get crafty in order to avoid the embarrassment of a second failed bid for speaker. In 2015, the Freedom Caucus forced McCarthy’s hand to remove himself from contention before Paul Ryan was ultimately elected. 

Five of his Republican colleagues have already spoken out against McCarthy’s candidacy, including Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., Rep. Bob Good, R-Va., Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., and Rep. Matt Rosendale, R-Mont. 

Good, who previously demurred when asked about his vote, told Axios Tuesday he will not vote in favor of McCarthy and will not vote present, instead opting to cast his ballot for another candidate. Good’s move could leave McCarthy searching to pick up one additional vote, with the five GOP defectors giving him around 217 likely votes. 

That means the House may be gearing up for the first multi-ballot speaker election in 100 years, since Fredrick Huntington Gillet became speaker in 1923 after 9 rounds of votes. 

But while many have focused on that 218 number – which is half of the House plus one for a majority vote – Casey Burgat, director of the Legislative Affairs Program at the George Washington University, says there is a path for McCarthy to become speaker with less than 218 votes.

“The simple answer is that you have to get a majority of those voting for a name. They have technically the option to vote present, which lowers the threshold that is required to get that simple majority,” said Burgat. “Assuming we're starting with 435, if five vote present, the math then goes down to 430. And you need that majority.”

McCarthy, though publicly confident when asked by reporters about getting the votes he needs, is also cognizant of what he has to lose.

“If we don’t do this right, Democrats could take the majority,” McCarthy warned his fellow Republicans during an appearance on Newsmax Monday. “If we play games on the floor, the democrats could wind up picking who the speaker is.” 

Matt Green, author of Newt Gingrich: The Rise and Fall of a Party Entrepreneur and a professor of political science at the Catholic University of America studying congressional leadership, says while McCarthy is right to warn his Republican members about a potential Democratic takeover of the gavel, Democrats would not take over the majority if that were to happen.

“[Democrats] would be leading a minority government, with the powers of the speakership but without the votes on the floor,” explained Green. “As such, they would be vulnerable to Republicans forcing another vote on the speakership in the hopes of ousting the Democratic speaker.”

Burgat added: “From McCarthy's perspective, I bet most of his time now is [spent] not persuading those five that are against him. It's trying to get the exact right people to not protest vote, and get his present votes there. So his math becomes a little easier, he can lose those votes and still get a majority technically.”

As for the prospects that Democrats could swoop in and steal the gavel, Burgat says it’s unlikely, but that there is a path for it to happen – if Republicans fall into factions and Democrats remain united. With Democrats electing Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., to be their minority leader, it’s likely they would nominate him for speaker. Burgat says while it’s unlikely Democrats are able to secure the speakership in this political game of chess, they should show up prepared, making sure each member is there and voting for one name only on Jan. 3.

“If you want any shot of this, and even just for politics, to show unity, against the backdrop of Republicans who are really struggling with their unity, to point to Hakeem Jeffries and just say, ‘all of us are united in this,’” Burgat said in part. “Not only does that raise your number of votes that can kind of get you close to that majority, it just shows unity when Republicans are showing that they're really struggling with that same thing.”

As for what this could mean for McCarthy’s career moving forward if he can’t solidify his caucus’ support behind him as speaker, Green says a second failed run for the gavel could signal the end of his political career.

“It’s tough to see McCarthy coming back if he loses the vote for speaker,” Green said. “It would reinforce widespread doubts about his leadership abilities, and House Republicans would be encouraged to find a candidate with broader consensus behind him.”