With the midterm elections just days away, Spectrum News is taking a look at one final topic shaping this political season – and that is Latino voters, the fastest-growing racial and ethnic electoral bloc whose support might swing races in key battleground states like Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
According to the Pew Research Center, Latinos will make up around 14% of eligible voters in this year’s elections, nearly double the amount as in 2000 and a historic high for the United States.
As a whole, Latino voters had long leaned Democratic, but in 2020, a study found that Latinos nationwide “swung towards [former President Donald] Trump by 8 points” compared to four years before.
“All of the data suggests Latinos are leaning two-to-one in favor of the Democrats. It is true that in some past elections it had been three-to-one,” Matt Barreto, a professor at UCLA, told Spectrum News. “So it has changed slightly.”
Political advertising directed to Spanish speakers is, of course, not new. Arizona’s population is a third Latino, and outreach to Arizona’s Latino community is long baked into local politics. Georgia, meanwhile, is about 10% Latino and Pennsylvania 8%. Close races in both states have both parties tailoring their message for more votes.
According to data from AdImpact, both Democrats and Republicans are likely to set records in Spanish-language political advertisements this cycle; as of mid-October, Democrats had outspent Republicans in the sector by three-to-one at $54 million compared to $19 million, respectively.
It remains to be seen what impact, if any, those millions of dollars in ad money will have on Latino voter turnout and sentiment – and Spectrum News traveled to a number of local races to see the battle play out firsthand.
In the Atlanta suburbs, like in many other states, a pitch to voters sometimes comes in two languages.
Last week, the Republican Party hosted an event at the RNC Hispanic Community Center in Georgia's Gwinnett County. It came a few weeks before Election Day – but Republicans said it was just their latest event in the area. Since late 2021, the GOP has been propping up community centers in states across the country to target primarily Hispanic and Latino voters.
“You’ve got to be here consistently, not just come a month or two before the election and then disappear,” John King, a Republican running for reelection as Georgia’s Insurance and Safety Fire Commissioner, told Spectrum News.
King, who was born in Mexico, is now Georgia’s first Hispanic statewide official. He says Latinos’ top concerns – namely, the economy and crime – are no different than many others.
About twenty minutes away in Norcross, Georgia, a progressive group said it is also building on relationships with fellow Latinos in the state.
“We need year-round engagement,” Yadira Sanchez, executive director of Poder Latinx, a national political organization focusing on economic, immigrant and climate justice, told Spectrum News.
The group is technically non-partisan, meaning they don’t endorse specific candidates or political parties. But they do focus on building a progressive voting block, appealing especially to younger voters.
“Climate change impacts everyone, regardless of your party,” Sanchez said. “The same thing [can be said] of parental leave, paid leave.”
Georgia Latinos who spoke with Spectrum News largely said they didn’t identify with one party or the other. They mentioned issues like immigration and gun violence, but said the economy tops all.
“For me, gasoline is very expensive, stuff for the kitchen, for the home, food,” one woman, Consuela, told Spectrum News in Spanish.
“I think it’s the economy that is suffering. Prices are rising at supermarkets, gasoline,” another woman, Marisol, said.
Then, there’s the border. While it’s more than a thousand miles away from Georgia, it’s a key part of this year’s political debate – and there has been some common ground from both the progressive Sanchez and conservative King in calls for an overhaul to the immigration system.
“We have to have an orderly process to immigrate into this country,” King said in part. “Right now, what we have is a total disaster.”
“The bigger problem here is this lack of immigration system that we have in the United States,” Sanchez echoed.
The topic is closer to home in the border state of Arizona, though a September Marist poll found Latino voters listed immigration fourth in the list of topics they will keep in mind at the ballot box next week, following inflation, preserving democracy and abortion.
Still, immigration has become a flashpoint in the high-profile race for Senate, where incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly is defending his seat against Republican challenger Blake Masters.
Notably, this is an area where Sen. Kelly has diverged from President Joe Biden. In the state’s first and only debate between the candidates running for Senate, Kelly stressed that he has pushed back against fellow Democrats – including President Biden – when he disagrees with their opinions on border-related issues.
“I’ve been strong on border security. And I’ve stood up to Democrats when they’re wrong on this issue — including the president,” Kelly said during the Oct. 6 debate. “When the president decided he was going to do something dumb on this and change the rules that would create a bigger crisis, I told him he was wrong. So I pushed back on this administration multiple times.”
The Latino vote in Arizona holds enormous sway, with nearly 1-in-4 eligible voters belonging to the demographic. The state is also being closely watched because, while most polls have found Arizona’s Latino voters prefer the Democratic candidates to the Republicans, the differences are by much smaller margins than were held by either Biden or Kelly in 2020.
Despite the common trends among the Latino voting bloc, no community is monolithic – and Latino advocates from different sides of the political aisle say there are significant differences in how issues are received depending on one’s national background. For instance, progressives’ calls to expand the social safety net requires particular reassurance to those from countries like Cuba and Venezuela.
“There's a lot of distinction in the diversity of Latino communities in the United States, including those communities who are from Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, who do have experience with different types of governments in their home countries that have been unjust,” Prof. Barreto said in an interview.
As the number of Latinos eligible to vote in this year’s elections sets records, so too might the amount elected to serve in the House of Representatives. Currently, 38 Latinos serve in that chamber of Congress, though there could be as many as 45 after Election Day – meaning Latinos would make up 10% of the members in the House of Representatives.