In the wake of a string of mass shootings across the country, a bipartisan group of senators is trying to hash out new federal measures aimed at stemming such gun violence.

There is said to be momentum – and President Joe Biden pressed for action in a speech Thursday night. 

What You Need To Know

  • In the wake of a string of mass shootings across the country, a bipartisan group of senators is trying to hash out new federal measures aimed at stemming such gun violence.

  • There are several factors that will make reaching a deal difficult – least of which being any such legislation would require the support of at least 10 Republicans in order to pass the Senate

  • On the midterm campaign trail, the political debate is following a familiar script: Democrats again are calling for tighter gun laws while Republicans tout support for the Second Amendment 

  • The experience of what happened after other mass shootings at schools may be instructive – but if history is any indication, a nationwide overhaul on gun reform remains unlikely

“I know how hard it is, but I’ll never give up and if Congress fails, I believe this time a majority of the American people won’t give up either,” Biden said. “I believe the majority of you will act to turn your outrage into making this issue central to your vote.”

There are several factors that will make reaching a deal difficult – least of which being any such legislation would require the support of at least 10 Republican senators in order to pass the evenly-split 50-50 chamber.

This is an election year and Congress is bitterly divided along party lines. Perhaps more than ever before, guns have become a partisan issue. The experience of what happened after other mass shootings at schools may be instructive – but if history is any indication, a nationwide overhaul on gun reform remains unlikely.  

The tragic 2012 shooting of twenty children and six adults at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut sparked a fresh push for gun reform laws. Then-President Barack Obama and numerous lawmakers from both parties recommended legislation focused on either banning high-capacity assault weapons or requiring universal background checks on most private sales of guns, not only those purchased through licensed dealers. 

Both pieces of legislation failed to pass the Republican-controlled Senate in April 2013.

Then came Valentine’s Day, 2018, and in Parkland, Florida, Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School fell under attack. Seventeen people were shot dead.

The massacre again touched off new calls for tighter gun laws – and prompted new candidates to run for office, including one whose 17-year old son was also a victim of gun violence.

Lucy McBath ended up winning a Georgia congressional seat long held by Republicans, as Democrats took control of the House of Representatives.

“That's an indication of a reaction to a mass shooting that had very specific consequences. And it happened in less than a year,” said Robert Spitzer, the author of five books on gun control and a professor emeritus of political science at SUNY Cortland. 

But like Sandy Hook, the Parkland shooting resulted in no significant changes to the nation’s federal gun laws.

More recently, there has been a spate of mass shootings, leaving families to mourn in states across the country. 

On Wednesday, a gunman killed four people in a Tulsa, Oklahoma hospital. Last week, a suspect killed 19 students and two adults at a Texas elementary school. Two weeks before, a gunman fatally shot ten people in a Buffalo, New York supermarket.

On the midterm campaign trail, the political debate is following a familiar script: Democrats again are calling for tighter gun laws. Republicans, meanwhile, tout support for the Second Amendment and even brandish weapons in television spots.

“The support for gun rights has served as an easy to use litmus test for conservatives,” Spitzer said. “The only question is whether that will continue to be true in the weeks and months ahead.”

A self-described no compromise gun rights group is not compromising.

“I think that what happened is an absolute tragedy, but I don't believe it's made me reevaluate our worldview whatsoever,” said Aidan Johnston of the Gun Owners of America. “What happened is awful, but we are part of the solution and not part of the problem.”

That’s the opposite of what groups like Moms Demand Action are insisting. Its leader says hundreds of thousands of people have recently signed up to donate and volunteer.

“It is up to the vast majority of Americans and gun owners who disagree and who don't want this type of country where anyone can get slaughtered at any time in their streets and in stores and in schools,” founder Shannon Watts told Spectrum News. “It is up to us to fight back and to not give up.”

But Spitzer isn’t convinced there will be changes, with the economy potentially eclipsing other issues in what drives voters to the polls this fall.

“By way of background, let me just say that most Americans support stronger gun laws, but for most Americans, it's not a top tier concern,” he said.

Still, numerous national polls have shown that the vast majority of Americans supported at least some form of increased gun control laws, even before the recent string of deadly shootings. According to Pew Research, around 53% of Americans favored “stricter gun laws” as of April 2021. Over 81% of individuals who identified as Democrats or Democratic-leaning said guns laws should be stricter, compared to just 20% of Republicans or those who lean Republican.

One recent POLITICO/Morning Consult survey found that 65% of respondents favored strengthening gun laws, up from 60% in the wake of the Buffalo shooting.

And while single-issue voters have, in the past, swayed elections, there are still months to go before the midterms – and for many Americans, the economy, cost of living and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine are higher priorities when electing candidates this year.