The 2022 midterm elections are not until November, but with less than a year to go, campaigns have already begun and candidates are off to the races – with primaries offering insights into the futures of both the Democrats and the Republicans.
All told, 34 Senate seats are up for grabs in the November 2022 midterms — and control of the chamber will potentially come down to key races in Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire and Arizona, all but one of which was won by President Joe Biden in 2020. And both parties are confident they'll be able to take control of the 50-50 Senate.
Despite falling poll numbers for President Biden and historical evidence that the president’s party almost always loses seats in midterm elections suggests an unfavorable political climate for Democrats, there’s still plenty of time for both parties to make their cases to the American people.
“The political environment is pretty lousy right now for Democrats, but the election is still close to a year away,” Kyle Klondik, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball at UVA Center for Politics, told Spectrum News earlier this month.
One of the races that will no doubt be one of the most closely watched in the country next year is the race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania.
On the Republican side of the ticket, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz made a splash upon entering the race after Sean Parnell, a candidate backed by former President Donald Trump, announced he was suspending his campaign after he lost a custody battle over his three children to his estranged wife following abuse allegations.
For the Democrats, two candidates have emerged as front-runners: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb – each representing a drastically different wing of the party.
Fetterman is labeled the more progressive; Lamb the moderate.
“I think that depending on how things shake out with these candidates it could be a good signal of where the party is at,” Daniel Mallinson, an assistant professor of public policy and administration at Penn State Harrisburg, told Spectrum News.
Physician Valerie Arkoosh and State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta are also vying for the nomination. Democrats see the race as a real chance to pick up a seat.
“As Democrats, we're focused on a very positive message about getting us through this COVID pandemic, getting the economy set up and making sure we're helping families with the costs that they have to deal with and lower their costs,” Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, who heads up the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told Spectrum News. “So, we have a very positive message with strong candidates and strong senators running. I'm very optimistic.”
CNN ranks the Pennsylvania seat as one of the 10 most likely Senate seats to flip, while Crystal Ball ranked the race as a toss-up. Pennsylvania shocked the political world in 2016 when the reliably blue state swung to Trump, but Biden narrowly won it back in 2020.
Polling averages show Fetterman leading the pack in the Keystone State, including a recent poll which shows him narrowly edging out Oz.
Klondik says that Republicans "would probably feel better about" winning the state if Toomey, the incumbent, was running for another term, but predicts the race will be competitive, saying that "Democrats are going to make a strong run" at the state.
Fetterman confesses he doesn’t look like a typical politician – or a typical person.
The 52-year old measures closer to 7 feet than to 6, towering over Gov. Tom Wolf and basically everyone else.
He lives in a converted car dealership with his wife, Gisele Barreto Fetterman, a nonprofit executive and immigrant from Brazil, their three children and rescue dog, Levi, referred to as the "Official Dog of Pennsylvania."
He’s a politician in Carhartt and shorts (even in winter) with tattoos – one of them the zip code of the small town he served as mayor; Braddock, Pennsylvania, a suburb of Pittsburgh.
On appearances alone, he’s getting attention.
But what drove him to national prominence were his appearances during the 2020 election in Pennsylvania – wearing shorts, Carhartt and a neck gaiter during television interviews, goading Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick over his $1 million reward for voter fraud evidence, and saying that Trump "can sue a ham sandwich" in regards to his challenging of the election results.
Then there’s his platform, which includes legalizing marijuana nationally, eliminating the filibuster and major criminal justice reforms.
“He's pretty progressive, but he's also been able to make a lot of those kinds of blue-collar connections,” Mallinson said.
Lamb, who is 37, was elected three years ago in a district that Donald Trump handily won in 2016.
Often seen in dress shirts, Lamb has stressed his willingness to work across the aisle - though he says the January 6 riot changed that.
“He is the traditional Pennsylvania Democrat, someone like Bob Casey, one of our current senators who's won many races here very easily,” said Christopher Borick, a professor of political science and director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.
One issue that unites both men is supporting natural gas – at least as an energy source before more renewables are cheaper. Fracking is a big source of jobs and revenue in Pennsylvania.
Although they come from opposite ends of the Democratic party, Fetterman and Lamb agree on a lot. Analysts say it’s their style and approach that most sets them apart from each other.
“There are some policy differences, but a lot of it is really rhetorical,” Borick said. “Look at what their brands are, who they represent, what's their identity in contemporary democratic politics.”
One issue Democrats will have to weigh is which candidate would be better positioned in November.
Both Fetterman and Lamb say they can appeal to the Democrats who no longer vote with the party – most famously five years ago, when Donald Trump won Pennsylvania.