One could almost mistake the Senate map in the 2022 midterms as a high-stakes boxing bout.
In the proverbial “red corner,” Florida Sen. Rick Scott, the Chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who claims that “people want Republicans in charge of the Senate.”
In the “blue corner,” Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, who heads up the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, who believes “we’ve got a really good map to defend.”
At stake? Control of the evenly divided 50-50 Senate — with Democrats in the majority, thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris’ ability to break deadlocks — and President Joe Bien’s agenda.
With the 2022 election less than a year away, it’s anybody’s guess as to which party will control the chamber in the 118th Congress.
Despite falling poll numbers for President Biden and historical evidence that the president’s party almost always loses seats in midterm elections suggests an unfavorable environment for Democrats, there’s still plenty of time for both parties to make their cases to the American people.
“The political environment is pretty lousy right now for Democrats, but the election is still close to a year away,” said Kyle Klondik, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball at UVA Center for Politics.
Republicans are feeling confident in 2022 after some victories in 2021’s off-year elections, including a surprise GOP win in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as well as a closer-than-normal race in reliably blue New Jersey.
Scott told Spectrum News that he hopes to see 54 Republicans in the Senate after the midterms, citing what he says is a “very unpopular” Biden agenda, including inflation, vaccine mandates and the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
“I think all these things are, unfortunately, horrible for our country, but I think it's putting Republicans in position when they are just the opposite those things,” Scott said. “They’ll help us win races.”
Klondik argued that some of the things driving down Biden’s polling numbers — namely inflation, rising consumer and gas prices — could change, leading to a shift in public sentiment.
“People's feelings about the President might get better the state of the country might get better economic news is kind of disjointed and said, you know, some of the indicators are really pretty good.
Peters, naturally, disagrees, saying that Democrats have “great candidates” in races across the country and a “very positive message.”
“As Democrats, we're focused on a very positive message about getting us through this COVID pandemic, getting the economy set up and making sure we're helping families with the costs that they have to deal with and lower their costs,” Peters said. “So, we have a very positive message with strong candidates and strong senators running. I'm very optimistic.”
All told, 34 Senate seats are up for grabs in the November 2022 midterm elections — and control of the chamber will potentially come down to key races in Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire and Arizona, all but one of which was won by President Biden in 2020.
Peters told Spectrum News Democrats are also looking at states like Florida and Ohio, both of which went for Trump in 2016 and 2020, as “additional opportunities.”
As of Nov. 3, Crystal Ball ranked Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada as toss-ups, New Hampshire as a state leaning toward Democrats, while North Carolina and Wisconsin as states leaning Republican.
Arizona is currently represented by two Democrats in the Senate, and went for President Biden in 2020. In November, the state picked Mark Kelly, a former astronaut married to former Arizona congresswoman Gabby Giffords, over Republican incumbent Martha McSally, in a special election to fill a vacancy created by the death of longtime Sen. John McCain.
Despite his victory, Kelly, a formidable fundraiser, is forced to run again in 2022 — potential Republican challengers include the state’s attorney general Mark Brnovich. But recent polling averages show Kelly solidly leading all potential Republican opponents.
“Arizona is a state that was very competitive for president in 2020 and for the Senate race with Mark Kelly,” Klondik said, noting that Kelly actually ran slightly ahead of Biden in that election. Klondik predicts that Kelly will have “another difficult race” and will be a “significant Republican target.”
Similar to Arizona, Georgia was another traditionally Republican state that swung Blue for Joe Biden in 2020 — and in January of 2021, delivered an upset victory in the form of sending two Democrats to the Senate in runoff elections: Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock.
And much like Kelly, Warnock must also once again enter campaign mode after a hard-fought race, as his was also a special election to fill an unexpired term.
Possible GOP opponents running against Warnock include former Georgia agriculture commissioner Gary Black and former NFL player Herschel Walker, who bears the endorsement of former President Donald Trump and several other prominent Republicans.
“Georgia is where you have kind of, in a lot of ways are racially polarized voting,” Klondik said. “There is a pretty substantial black voting bloc that is very heavily Democratic, so black turnout is really important for Democrats.”
Scott slammed Warnock as a “Marxist” and called Georgia a “Republican state” that they will “absolutely” win, but Peters praised Warnock — and Kelly — as “great candidates” and expressed confidence in their ability to win.
“We have great senators, two of them who have just came out of out of campaigns, both in Georgia and Arizona,” the Michigan Democrat said. “They've proven to be great candidates, and now they've proven to be great senators, who are delivering for the people in Georgia and Arizona."
Polling averages also currently largely favor Warnock over Walker and other potential candidates, including former senator Kelly Loeffler, who lost to Warnock in the January runoffs.
Klondik called Walker an "unproven candidate" who has "some baggage" – saying much of his support from Republicans may have stemmed from Trump's endorsement – but noted that, as a Black Republican, if Walker can "peel off just a tiny little share of the Black vote" in the state, that "can really be decisive" in this race.
Another factor in Georgia could be what's sure to be a high-profile, closely watched gubernatorial race. Democrat and voting rights advocate Stacey Abrams, who helped flip the state blue and send Warnock and Ossoff to Congress, has entered the race. Abrams entering the race either sets up a rematch with her 2018 opponent, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, or could pit her against former senator David Perdue, who lost to Ossoff earler this year and has the backing of Trump. Perdue has also fully embraced debunked and baseless claims of election fraud, and on Friday filed a lawsuit which seeks to prove he and Trump were cheated out of election wins. (There is no evidence of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 elections, which has been backed up by election officials and courts nationwide.)
Pennsylvania is another sure to be closely watched race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey: TV personality Mehmet Oz has entered the fray on the Republican side after Trump-backed candidate Sean Parnell dropped out of the race. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman has emerged as a formidable fundraiser and frontrunner, but Rep. Conor Lamb and state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta have also mounted strong campaigns heading into next year's primary.
Polling averages show Fetterman leading the pack in the Keystone State, including a recent poll which shows him narrowly edging out Oz.
Pennsylvania shocked the political world in 2016 when the reliably blue state swung to Trump, but Biden narrowly won it back in 2020.
Klondik says that Republicans "would probably feel better about" winning the state if Toomey, the incumbent, was running for another term, but predicts the race will be competitive, saying that "Democrats are going to make a strong run" at the state.
In terms of the role that former President Trump will play in the race, Klondik said that "Republicans probably want to make this election more of a referendum on on Joe Biden and Democrats in power," but if Trump treats the midterms as a staging ground for a possible 2024 presidential campaign, that could complicate their strategy.
Another factor Klondik says could complicate things? The election is still far away, giving Biden and Congressional Democrats plenty of time to turn things around.
"We don't have the election for another ... it's still close to a year away," he said. "So there's time for things to change some of the problems that I think people see right now, with inflation and gas prices, those things might stabilize a bit."
"The Democrats do have some offensive Senate opportunities, too," he added. "They're not just defending Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, in the Hampshire, they do have Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina as targets. Maybe if things brighten up for Democrats, or if there are primary problems for Republicans, maybe you see like a state like Ohio, or Florida or something like that come on to the competitive board.
"It's way too early to make any kind of projections as to where where ratings are going to be or where the economy is going to be," Peters told Spectrum News, noting the positive impact that Biden's COVID-19 relief bill, the American Rescue Plan, has had on the country, and touting the recently passed infrastructure bill and the nearly $2 trillion social spending and climate change bill they're hoping to pass in the coming weeks.
"We're passing legislation as well to help families deal with rising costs, and make things more cost effective, lowering the cost of prescription drugs, lowering the cost of childcare, the things that really matter to families, were actually engaging in finding solutions for those problems, as opposed to the Republicans who are just busy fighting each other and figuring out who's the closest to Donald Trump and who can be the most outrageous," he added. "That's not that's certainly not a strategy to win. We think that's a losing strategy for Republicans, and we're excited about the election coming up."
Equally confident in Republican victories is Scott, who believes his party has "the best message," which will project them to victory in 2022.