Retail sales this holiday season are expected to reach an all-time high of $1 trillion.
The National Retail Federation expects consumers will spend 2.5-3% more this year compared with 2023, driven by consumers’ positive feelings about the economy.
Despite the recent, brief strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports and disruptions to the supply chain from the recent back-to-back hurricanes, National Retail Federation President Matt Shay said most holiday merchandise is already in the United States. Retailers sped up deliveries to the ports in anticipation of the strike earlier this month and because of possible increased tariffs on foreign imports if former President Donald Trump is reelected.
“We saw people really adjusting their behavior in anticipation of what might happen,” Shay said Friday during a briefing at the Port of Los Angeles. “We feel very good about where retailers are in terms of their inventory cycle, getting goods into place and being prepared to meet the demand for the holiday season.”
He credited the resilience of the American consumer for a 0.4% increase in retail sales in September — a trend he expects to continue through the holidays. Retail sales so far this year are up 3.5% compared with 2023.
The NRF expects retail sales from November 1 through December 31 to bring in about $990 billion — up from $955 billion last year.
Americans are placing greater importance on the holidays following the pandemic, Shay said.
“It was the one way in which families could maintain some sense of normalcy was to really go out in a robust way,” he said, adding that he expects Halloween to be a bigger holiday this year than ever before.
“The end-of-the-year holidays in the U.S. are the kinds of things that American families prepare for, plan for and save for all year long so they can make those investments for themselves and their families.”
Despite inflation in recent years that has pushed up prices for everything from gas to groceries, Shay said many goods this holiday season are experiencing deflation of 0.5-1%.
“Prices have come down on thousands and thousands of items,” Shay said, without giving specifics.
The Port of Los Angeles saw its best September in shipments in its 116-year history, Executive Director Gene Seroka reported Friday. The port processed 955,000 shipping containers last month — 27% more than last year.
He said October is shaping up to be another strong month, with anticipated cargo volumes of 800,000 shipping containers — well above levels for the last two years.
The end of the year is typically the port’s slack season, but that is not the case this year as retailers plan in advance for a possible resumption of the East Coast and Gulf Coast port strike in January. The recent three-day strike at the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports cost the U.S. economy an estimated $5 billion per day.