As the top Democrat in a key state, Gov. Kathy Hochul has much to gain from her party’s success on Nov. 5 — and possibly a lot to lose.

“If we’re able to pick up a handful of seats and if that either helps us bridge the gap or close the gap entirely and take over the majority, then New York is going to be able to stand out as a shining example,” Democratic consultant Austin Shafran told NY1.

Although President Joe Biden handily won New York in 2020 and Democrats have a two-to-one voter enrollment advantage statewide. Republicans picked up congressional seats in 2022 on Long Island and upstate, denying the party control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

“New York has become a bellwether state. New York is the new Missouri, if you will,” Shafran said.

Then, Hochul was blamed by some party leaders, including former house speaker Nancy Pelosi.

She narrowly won her own race against former GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin.

Republicans say, should Vice President Kamala Harris win, they actually see their chances increase.

“Governor Hochul is desperate not to be a liability to the Democratic Party, and that’s how she’s been perceived both in New York and nationally for several years now,” William O’Reilly, a Republican strategist, said.

Now, Hochul has made it her mission to turn that narrative around, dispatching millions of state party dollars and volunteers to assist vulnerable candidates.

“Since she is not at the head of the ticket — I know we’re talking about Kamala Harris — it’s not likely that she’s gonna get blamed if Democrats in New York do poorly,” Shafran said. “But if they win, given the fact that she’s been so out there, probably the most outspoken cheerleader working out rallies, getting to the different districts, putting in resources from the state party — she stands to gain a lot.”

New York’s first female governor has made it a priority to be seen as a key surrogate for Harris. She was tapped to speak at the national convention in August and was campaigning for the Democratic ticket in Michigan and Pennsylvania last month.

Some argue she could be rewarded.

“There’s still a possibility that Vice President Harris become[s] President Harris, that Governor Hochul might go into that administration. I think it might be a wise move for her,” O’Reilly noted.

Should Donald Trump return to the White House, Hochul said she would work with him on behalf of New Yorkers.

“Don’t foresee that happening, but clearly it is my responsibility to always represent the people of New York State, even in the corridors of power in Washington and I’ll keep doing that as I have been,” Hochul said on Thursday.

Hochul could mount a strong reelection campaign, painting herself and New York, as the opposition.

“It’s a little bit counterintuitive, where the party in power in Washington tends to do poorly in midterm elections, so Governor Hochul would have a better shot in a reelection attempt against a president Trump than a President Harris,” O’Reilly said.

Hochul will also need to use the next several months to shore up support ahead of her reelection bid, including making policy decisions like what to do with congestion pricing.