POLL DATA
1. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill de Blasio is doing as Mayor? Base: Live In NYC N=358
1. Approve 50%
2. Disapprove 27%
8. Not sure 20%
9. Refuse 3%
2. In general, how satisfied are you with city services in New York? Would you say you are? Base: Live In NYC N=358
1. Very satisfied 18%
2. Somewhat satisfied 48%
3. Not so satisfied 17%
4. Not satisfied at all 13%
8. Not sure 2%
9. Refuse 1%
3. In general, do you think things in New York City are headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? Base: Live In NYC N=358
1. Right direction 42%
2. Wrong track 44%
8. Not Sure 14%
9. Refuse 1%
10A. Would you want to see Mayor de Blasio run for President in 2020? N=800
1. Yes 23%
2. No 57%
8. Not sure 19%
9. Refuse 1%
Methodology
This telephone poll of a random sample of 800 New York State adult residents, was conducted at OAC by Baruch College Survey Research, Marxe School of Public and International Affairs, Baruch College, CUNY on behalf of NY1 News and Baruch College from November 30 - December 10, 2017. The 426 landline telephone interviews and 374 cell phone interviews were conducted with separate samples of New York State residents.
The landline sample was based on a random digit dial (RDD) design which draws numbers from all existing landline telephone exchanges across New York State, giving all phone numbers, listed and unlisted, a proportionate chance of being included. Respondents in the landline sample were selected randomly within the household. This sample was supplemented by an RDD cell phone sample, based on numbers identified as active cell phones throughout the state. Respondents were screened for residence in New York State and were offered the option of being interviewed in Spanish.
The margin of sampling error (MoE) for data from the poll is +/- 3.5% for the full sample of 800 at the 95% confidence level. That is, the chances are about 19 out of 20 that if all households with telephones were surveyed with the same questionnaire, the results of the complete census would not be found to deviate from the poll findings by more than 3.5 percentage points. Error for subgroups is higher. The margin of sampling error (MoE) for the 358 NYC residents is +/- 5.2 points. Sampling is only one source of error. Other sources of error may include question wording, question order and interviewer effects.
STORY
The last time Mayor Bill de Blasio was in Iowa, home to the first-in-the-nation presidential nominating contest, he was door-knocking for Hillary Clinton.
If he's thinking about coming back as a candidate in 2020, New Yorkers definitively think he should the drop the idea.
According to our latest exclusive NY1/Baruch College Poll, city residents, by more than a two-to-one margin, don't want to see him run in 2020 — 57 percent to just 23 percent who do want him to run, with 19 percent unsure.
"They may be happy with him right now as mayor, but they are not looking to have him run," Baruch College Pollster Mickey Blum said.
"Well, that's great, because I'm mayor for the next four years, and this is the thing I'm doing," de Blasio said in our "Mondays with the Mayor" segment.
While no fan of polls, as he made clear on "Mondays with the Mayor," de Blasio could take solace in his approval rating, which ticked up three percentage points since our last poll two months ago; it's now 50 percent, versus just 27 percent disapproval; 20 percent are not sure.
"You always want to hit that 50 percent, and it's actually two-to-one — his approval over his disapproval — and it's up from when we did it last in October," Blum said.
When it comes to the mayor's popularity, racial disparities remain stark.
He enjoys overwhelming support among black New Yorkers: 72 percent approval to just 11 percent disapproval. Hispanics give him 64 percent approval to just 18 percent disapproval. But whites disapprove, 47 percent to 35 percent approval.
Two other hotbeds of anti-de Blasio sentiment: High earners, those making more than a $100,000 a year — 44 percent disapproval to 36 percent approval — and Republicans, who overwhelmingly disapprove 75 percent to just 20 percent approval.
De Blasio ran for re-election on his successes in areas like universal pre-K, affordable housing, and reduced crime, although a homelessness crisis persists.
On balance, however, city residents seem to think he's delivering. 66 percent are somewhat satisfied or very satisfied with city services, while just 30 percent are not so satisfied or not satisfied at all, with two percent unsure.
On a separate indicator, however, a slightly larger number of New Yorkers (44 percent) say things in the city are on the wrong track, than those who say they're headed in the right direction (42 percent). 14 percent are unsure. The margin of error for that poling question is 5.2 percentage points.
Of course, the mayor now has four more years to change that sentiment — that is, if he sticks around.